Predictions for 2022 – opinion

Last year at around this time, I gave my opinion on what might happen in 2021 – I got more than half right – see report in Resources below.  With both a Provincial and Council election scheduled, one major issue for 2022 will be politics.  The other big issue will be the economy: with inflation getting significant, interest rates will go up and therefore the housing market will cool or possibly tank.  Covid-19 will not go away but will become just one of the things we cope with – it’s unlikely that there will be any lockdown or major restrictions although people will remain cautious.  All this means that local issues will get most of our attention.  Here are my predictions – keep in mind that many could be wrong although hopefully fewer than last year.

Politics

  • In the Provincial election in June, the Greens will do poorly (because of Federal Leadership issues), the Liberals will do better; a minority Government is likely – I can’t predict whether it would be Liberal or Conservative.  In any event, I’d expect our local MPP David Piccini will get back in.
  • In the Council election in October, half the Councillors will be replaced.  No Councillors have announced their intentions but I predict Suzanne Séguin, Aaron Burchat, Emily Chorley, Nicole Beatty and Adam Bureau will run for re-election – who will get elected is much harder to predict.
  • Major issues in the Council election will be Taxes, Affordable Housing and Climate Change.
  • Sometime before October, Council will vote for an increase in their pay effective with the next Council.
  • There will still be little said or done about the Cultural Plan.

Covid-19

  • Although Omicron will become dominant, there will be no full lockdowns.  But then I like to be optimistic.
  • The fourth wave of new cases will peak in January
  • Masks will continue to be required indoors when not eating
  • Fully vaccinated will come to mean that you have also had a booster shot.  Annual Covid-19 booster shots in the Fall will become normal.  Most will have had Booster shots by the end of March.

Town

  • As of January 1, 2022, the Brookside property is in the hands of Infrastructure Ontario – they must decide what is to be done and I predict a decision by the end of 2022.  It will not be donated or sold to the Town. I hope I’m wrong on this one.
  • The beach will be open without limits
  • Parking near the beach will be expensive in season
  • There will be a Float your Fanny down the Ganny event
  • There will be a Canada Day Parade
  • There will be a Sandcastle Festival, a Waterfront Festival, Highland Games and RibFest – although they may be scaled down. (That’s 4 predictions).
  • There will be no action at the Tannery site – no developer will be interested
  • There will be no major changes at the Mall although minor changes will continue
  • The Park Theatre will slide further towards demolition by neglect
  • There will be no further discussion about Downtown re-vitalization
  • Nothing will happen with the Sidbrook property

The Economy

  • House Prices in Cobourg will start to drop by summer or maybe sooner
  • At least one of the newly opened Cannabis shops will close
  • The Canadian Stock market will peak in the Spring but the subsequent dip will not exceed 20%.

Predictions for a full year are far from certain – things change quickly, especially in this Covid era.  Does anyone have any other predictions for Cobourg?

And I wish a Happy New Year to everyone.

Resources

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Wally Keeler
1 January 2022 10:34 pm

TWEEDLEDEE
The leader of Canada said unvaccinated Canadians don’t believe in science and progress and are very often misogynistic and racist.

TWEEDLEDUM
This triggered People’s Party of Canada leader Maxime Bernier to call Trudeau a “fascist psychopath.”

This is how politicians degrade themselves and us. I predict that there will be more of this, much, much more.

Kevin
Reply to  Wally Keeler
2 January 2022 8:24 am

Sadly, you may be right. Generalizations like the first quote are a cause of racism. I have never had a flu vaccine but I do believe in science (I also know that the vaccine referred to here is Covid-19). What does being a misogynist have to do with vaccines? A cousin of mine refuses to get vaccinate. She is not a misogynist. I know a black man who supports civil rights and is not vaccinated. These are examples of people that do not fit into the Canadian leader’s category. We need to treat people as individuals and place blame or credit to the individual and not the group they belong to. If you do not agree then think about how you will group people? Take a stand against this kind of hate speech so Wally’s prediction will be wrong.

Wally Keeler
Reply to  Kevin
2 January 2022 11:07 am

I sure wish it was otherwise, Kevin.

Our PM is often indulgent of his own hate speech. On Sept 6/21 the PM asserted that protesters demonstrating against him were “anti-vaxxer mobs” launching “racist, misogynistic attacks. … we’ll not allow those voices, those special interest groups, those protesters — I don’t even want to call them protesters, those anti-vaxxer mobs” 

Branding the unvaccinated as scapegoats, evil, sources of disease is a dangerous ploy. It is gratuitous scaremongering and a dog whistle for retribution to suppress those dissident voices. Our PM is infected with the S.O.R.E. virus (Suppression, Oppression, Repression of Expression), the leading cause of mediocrity.

JimT
Reply to  Wally Keeler
2 January 2022 5:01 pm

No argument there, Wally.
Not the first time he has distinguished himself like that.
I know for sure his antics have cost the Liberals the vote of at least one long-time Liberal supporter.

ben
31 December 2021 9:39 am

“In the Council election in October, half the Councillors will be replaced. No Councillors have announced their intentions but I predict Suzanne Séguin, Aaron Burchat, Emily Chorley, Nicole Beatty and Adam Bureau will run for re-election – who will get elected is much harder to predict.”

Read between the lines John and go a little further. It is a forgone conclusion that the DM will run for the top spot. DMs are genetically programmed to think that they should be the Mayor. DMs everywhere suffer from this syndrome.

That opens the DM’s spot and other Councillors will want to contest this. You are right in thinking that half the Council will not be around. Retirement, longevity and ambition will ensure that only four of the present seven will be back.

That leaves three open spots. Hmmmm who will put there name forward? As you know competency has little to do with election success; popularity, especially in local politics will win the day. Here’s a challenge name the three most popular people in Town!

Just my two cents worth

Kathleen
31 December 2021 7:14 am

Sometime before October, Council will vote for an increase in their pay effective with the next Council” … You gave yourself one there, John. And they won’t need to hire a consultant to make the decision either.
Happy New Year. Love your blog.

JimT
30 December 2021 11:33 pm

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
― Yogi Berra [May 12, 1925 – September 22, 2015]

Ken
Reply to  JimT
31 December 2021 11:06 am

….and, it ain’t over, till it’s over….

Kevin
Reply to  JimT
1 January 2022 9:39 am

In some ways predictions are easy. Correct prediction are the difficult ones. JD’s predictions are likely better than mine. For several predictions, in the Town category, the status quo is the predicted. These are likely good predictions as little change has happened to several properties in a number of years. A professor once told his class the best predictor of the weather for tomorrow is today’s weather, but it is obviously a terrible method to predict changes. With Covid a number of annual events have been cancelled. This proves the events are not a necessary part of life but they do make life more enjoyable. Lets hope the predictions about our summer festivals are correct to help us enjoy 2022. Happy New Year!

Cobourg taxpayer
30 December 2021 3:49 pm

I predict that at some point in 2022, hopefully earlier rather then later, the local health unit and politicians will realize that the most important statistic to emphasize in regards to Covid 19 is the number of hospitalizations/ICU admissions. By all reports this figure locally is low. To emphasize the number of positive test results, Covid cases and positivity rate do nothing but cause fear. Omicron is extremely contagious but most reports seem to indicate symptoms are mild. Wear a mask indoors, wash your hands, get vaccinated, stay healthy and stay away from large indoor groups. We need to live our lives and stop living in constant fear. Oh and please keep schools open. Common sense must prevail. Happy New Year!

vkl
Reply to  Cobourg taxpayer
30 December 2021 5:11 pm

Yes…to all above. But until this wave is over, continue to be cautious and REDUCE contacts. The hospital where my daughter works as an RN (Queensway Carlton) is urging people to “avoid going to the emergency department if possible…” Staffing shortages and more patients than they have capacity for have forced them to cut various services. This will happen elsewhere and not just hospitals. Vet clinics in Ottawa are already turning away emergencies. Will the fire department be next? So, it is not time yet to just carry on as usual. We are definitely not there yet. REDUCE your contacts, and do everything you can to reduce the strain on our emergency systems.

Gerinator
Reply to  Cobourg taxpayer
31 December 2021 10:06 am

https://www.sudbury.com/local-news/ontario-reports-record-13807-new-covid-cases-today-4909199
Don’t agree that we should only be reporting Hospitalization/ICU data. Agreed big numbers are scary, but should they not be. The above site lists ICU (ontario wide) is 200 in ICU & 104 on ventilators. Hospitalizations 965. These small numbers of 965/304 are not very impressive and certainly (in my mind) does not lead one to the conclude that there is a huge ongoing impact to the economy and public health. Don’t want to put words in your mouth but I don’t think that ‘dumbing down’ the data is the way to get peoples attention. There were 13000+ new cases (Dec 30 data) in Ontario. That tells me that if people aren’t paying attention to 13K they sure as hell won’t pay attention to 965/304.

vkl
Reply to  Gerinator
31 December 2021 1:06 pm

People will take notice if their beloved dog can’t have emergency care…..or the emergency department of their hospital can’t take them in. https://animalemergencyspecialty.ca/triage/. See Ottawa Animal Emergency & Specialty Hospital…..”emergency patient intake paused”. It becomes more than numbers if it affects you personally. Queensway Carleton has a code orange right now due to staffing shortages. Tip of the iceberg if we all go out as if things are back to normal.

Gerinator
Reply to  vkl
2 January 2022 9:46 am

Agreed. Hospitalization and ICU and Ventilators stats are available – but these types of folk aren’t noticing; that is until the proverbial brick hits their forehead and they see the blood. By that time its to late.