Last year at around this time, I gave my opinion on what might happen in 2021 – I got more than half right – see report in Resources below. With both a Provincial and Council election scheduled, one major issue for 2022 will be politics. The other big issue will be the economy: with inflation getting significant, interest rates will go up and therefore the housing market will cool or possibly tank. Covid-19 will not go away but will become just one of the things we cope with – it’s unlikely that there will be any lockdown or major restrictions although people will remain cautious. All this means that local issues will get most of our attention. Here are my predictions – keep in mind that many could be wrong although hopefully fewer than last year.
- In the Provincial election in June, the Greens will do poorly (because of Federal Leadership issues), the Liberals will do better; a minority Government is likely – I can’t predict whether it would be Liberal or Conservative. In any event, I’d expect our local MPP David Piccini will get back in.
- In the Council election in October, half the Councillors will be replaced. No Councillors have announced their intentions but I predict Suzanne Séguin, Aaron Burchat, Emily Chorley, Nicole Beatty and Adam Bureau will run for re-election – who will get elected is much harder to predict.
- Major issues in the Council election will be Taxes, Affordable Housing and Climate Change.
- Sometime before October, Council will vote for an increase in their pay effective with the next Council.
- There will still be little said or done about the Cultural Plan.
- Although Omicron will become dominant, there will be no full lockdowns. But then I like to be optimistic.
- The fourth wave of new cases will peak in January
- Masks will continue to be required indoors when not eating
- Fully vaccinated will come to mean that you have also had a booster shot. Annual Covid-19 booster shots in the Fall will become normal. Most will have had Booster shots by the end of March.
- As of January 1, 2022, the Brookside property is in the hands of Infrastructure Ontario – they must decide what is to be done and I predict a decision by the end of 2022. It will not be donated or sold to the Town. I hope I’m wrong on this one.
- The beach will be open without limits
- Parking near the beach will be expensive in season
- There will be a Float your Fanny down the Ganny event
- There will be a Canada Day Parade
- There will be a Sandcastle Festival, a Waterfront Festival, Highland Games and RibFest – although they may be scaled down. (That’s 4 predictions).
- There will be no action at the Tannery site – no developer will be interested
- There will be no major changes at the Mall although minor changes will continue
- The Park Theatre will slide further towards demolition by neglect
- There will be no further discussion about Downtown re-vitalization
- Nothing will happen with the Sidbrook property
- House Prices in Cobourg will start to drop by summer or maybe sooner
- At least one of the newly opened Cannabis shops will close
- The Canadian Stock market will peak in the Spring but the subsequent dip will not exceed 20%.
Predictions for a full year are far from certain – things change quickly, especially in this Covid era. Does anyone have any other predictions for Cobourg?
And I wish a Happy New Year to everyone.
- Original Post – Predictions for 2021 – 31 Dec 2020
- Score Card on Predictions for 2021 and their accuracy – pdf – 17 out of 26 right
- Predictions for 2019 – 30 December 2018
- Predictions for 2018 – 30 December 2017