With the election less than a week away, it’s time to review the Cobourg News Blog series of posts featuring four key election issues. As expected, many candidates simply pointed to the policies published by their party but some in particular took the trouble to spell out their personal positions. Most electors in Canada decide their vote based on the policies and personalities of the party leaders and see the candidates as representatives and not individuals. But in gathering responses to my questions, I have come to see them as distinct from their party leaders. I can also safely say that from my perspective, they are all good people. But let me try to analyse what Cobourg News Blog readers think.
Numbers as of publication of this post
|Question subject||Article hits||Number of Comments|
|Long Term Care||871||12|
Note that posts that are online longer will get more hits and comments. Taking this into account, one can still make observations by comparing to other subjects on this blog.
- The Provincial election does not seem to generate a whole lot of interest. Or maybe people have already decided who they should vote for and are not really very interested in what candidates have to say.
- There is no consensus on how to fix our health care system except that it’s a Government issue and nurses should be paid more.
- There seems to be no consensus on what exactly affordable housing means and secondly, how should it be provided.
- Affordable housing is of more interest than the Environment – at least at the Provincial level.
- Despite the talk, the Environment is not a big issue – at least provincially
- Discussions on the Environment are mostly about using energy sources that don’t produce carbon dioxide when operating
- For Long Term Care, the most contentious issue is the provision of long term care by for-profit companies versus not-for-profit and government operated homes.
You have no doubt seen predictions that Ford will get back in with a majority but most media don’t go into details. We all know that polls can be wrong – as they have before – but they are still interesting. Most Canadian media agree that the best source of poll information is web site 338Canada run by Philippe J. Fournier. Phillippe collects information from all polls and uses them to predict results in elections with his current focus on the Ontario Provincial election. He even drills down to the riding level so he can predict which ridings will go to which party. To do this, he relies not only on Province wide polls but also electoral history, demographics and if there is a star candidate. The error margin is high (around 8%) but he currently predicts our Riding to be “Leaning CPC”. (“Leaning” means 70 to 90% likely).
See Resources below for links to key parts of Phillipe’s web site.
I would note that Cobourg tends to vote left of the rest of the Riding – that is, the Conservative strength in Northumberland-Peterborough South is primarily in rural areas and not Cobourg.
338 Canada Links
Provincial Election fact page – includes results of previous elections
Previous posts in this series
- What are your Policies to improve the Province’s Health System?
- How will you make Housing more affordable?
- What are your policies on the Environment and sustainability?
- Candidates Plans for Long term Care